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Market Outlook (14th March 2023) - Panic selling in the market is clearly visible | Portfolios are down ~15-20% from ATH | Weakness may continue for next few weeks.
Recovery will start around mid 2023 followed by two massive bull market year of 2024 & 2025 | If you SURVIVE this bloodbath, you will make BIG TIME MONEY.
Next support for Nifty is around 16,800 & at worst case 16,200. Recovery will start around mid 2023 followed by two massive bull market year of 2024 & 2025. If you SURVIVE this bloodbath, you will make BIG TIME MONEY.
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📌 Back to back bad news like FED continued increasing interest rate during 2022-23, followed by Adani Fiasco and last week fall of Silicon Valley Bank, Signature bank & now Silvergate went bankrupt. All these events are putting immense pressure on tired, frustrated & immature (new investors who are either first time in the market or they use to be a short term trader but now they are forced investor) market participants. Based on my interaction, I can see few investors withdrawn from the market giving reason like, I need to buy flat so I am selling my portfolio. But many investors are feeling anxiety, desperation, deep pain of notional losses in their portfolio with zero returns in last 18 months.
📌 Till last few days, investors use to do average down but now most of them have stopped doing it due to the fear of systemic risk failure (global bank failure) which is looking similar to financial crisis of 2008 for them. We DO NOT THINK that any kind of major impact will be felt due to current fallout of banks in US. When you stop buying and panic selling continues in the market then there is no support for the stock or for the market. It gets into free fall mode which can be witnesses now.
📌 Last week was scary for the US banking sectors. Silicon Valley Bank, the 16th largest bank (~ nearly the same size as HDFC Bank) in the US went down, Majority of Bank customers were startups and Ventures capitalist. Signature bank's operation was shut down by the regulator due to systematic risk. Although the fall of Signature bank was due to panic outflow of funds. Crypto-focused bank Silvergate went bankrupt.
📌 There is nothing new in the market, if you have seen the Covid-19 crash of Mar'20 then you should not be under panic condition, you must be holding your portfolio & if possible then add the list of stocks suggested earlier and few more will be suggested during "max pain" which is expected anytime during next 3 months.
📌 If you haven't sold in panic in last couple of days, sooner or later, you are destined to make good money. If you have been maintaining good cash levels for last few months, you should make use of cash for bottom fishing.
📌 We are expecting recovery to start around mid 2023 and trust me 2024 & 2025 is going to be the massive bull market period. It's matter of just 3 months more, hold your breath, have some strength, courage & patience and DO NOT disturb your portfolio holdings.
📌 If you refer our last 4 years of performance, you will find that those who invested during 2019 & 2020 are sitting with ~260% portfolio returns inspire of Covid-19 crash and 18 months of no returns period of 2022-23. It clearly shows the "non linear" nature of the market means market will not give you any portfolio returns for one year and portfolio will rise 100% in next year -OR- market will remain dull for 2 years and 3rd year it will give 200% portfolio returns. Who wins, such kind of game? The one who has patience & courage to hold his portfolio during bad phases in the market.
📌 Those who started investing in 2021 & 2022 are facing the heat of this correction. This is the real testing time for them and if they can hold their portfolio till 2024/25 they will see similar kind (~200% Up) of returns in their portfolio.
📌 Remember that, emotions can't be back tested. This is why past bear market (2008, 2012-13, Demonetization of 2016, 2018-19 & Mar'20) always looks like opportunities and future ones (2022-23) scary.
📌 Lot of people who entered in the market during 2021, after looking at the easy money made by their friends/relatives post Covid crash of Mar'20. Most of them were a long term investors till next bear market. You will find majority of them will quit the market because "There ain't no such thing as a free lunch" - to make money in the market you need to first understand the rules of this game and it is "delayed gratification". Just make sure that you are not among them.
Stay Invested & Have Courage & Patience to hold your Portfolio.