Market Outlook (22nd Dec'22): Do NOT Panic. Recent market fall is the last leg of this correction which started in Index from Oct 2021 and in Small & Mid-Caps from Jan 2022.
This shakeout in the market will force all the weak hands to exit which will eventually pave the way for 2nd phase of this bull run which will start from Feb'23 till mid 2025.
📢📢📢 Market Outlook (22nd Dec 2022): Do NOT Panic. Recent market fall is the last leg of this correction which started in Index from Oct 2021 and in Small & Mid-Caps from Jan 2022. This shakeout in the market will force all the weak hands to exit which will eventually pave the way for 2nd phase of this bull run which will start from Feb'23 till mid 2025.
📌 We expect this weakness to last max 30-45 days, around union budget of 2023 (Date: 1st Feb'23) we will see recovery in the market.
📌 If you remember, we have been mentioning that the capex cycle which started in 2021 will last till 2027 and the stock market upcycle (bull market) which are generally 6 months ahead, started from mid 2020 will last till 2025/2026. In between 2020 to 2026 (5 years bull run), we are witnessing intermittent correction of 2022. This is how market operates and there is nothing new or un-usual about it.
📌 1st phase of this bull market was from mid 2020 till Oct'21 (15-18 months) and 2nd phase of this bull market will start around Feb-Mar'23 and will last till the mid or end of 2025.
📌 Whole 2022 was not a good year for equity investors (in fact Indian markets were in much better shape as compare to global markets), now we are seeing last & final shake-out movement which will kick-out all the weak hands and pave the way for 2nd phase of bull market to continue.
📌 Stay invested, do not panic. Keep adding stocks where ever you see value. Remember that if you can survive the next couple of months, you will witness massive rally ahead for next 18-24 months.
🌟🌟🌟 Corona Ek Bahana Hai, Aapka Maal Sastey Mai Lekar Jana Hai (Covid-19 is just an excuse, actual intent is to create panic & grab your shares at throwaway price!)
👉 Just think, since last 1 year market has not given any meaningful return rather we have seen a turbulent market under pressure due to high inflation, high commodity prices (crude prices), Russia-Ukraine war, increase in interest rate by central banks across the world and off-late a fear of Covid-19 spreading again.
👉 Now think about the mindset of tired retail investors, during last one year they have not seen any returns, globally markets have fallen off more than 20-30% from their all-time high but Indian markets were holding somehow due to various fundamental reasons. There was always a fear in the mind of market participants knowing that we are not doing so bad as compared to our neighbors'. Now they have started seeing the impact of global headwinds and within last few days most of us have seen our portfolio going down by 10-15%. This will enforce the fear factor and most of the investors who are not seasoned (experienced) will prefer to exit or stay away from the market.
👉 And this is what the market wants, remember that market never goes up because of buying support but market goes up because of the absence of selling and once all weak hands are out, market will become lighter and ready to fly high. Current fall in the market is a panic selling we are witnessing and these panic selling are fueled by weak hands.
👉 Rather than looking for reason why market fell down? Rather than looking for levels till what Nifty will fall? We prefer understanding the big picture and waiting with patience for our turn to come.
👉 We have received numerous request from the clients asking us to analyze the Covid-19 impact on our market. Let me tell you market never reacts twice on the same news, why because if the market knows the outcome of any problem it will not react. What happened in March 2020 when COVID broke, market tanked because no one was having any clue on how to tackle this situation and what will be the extent of impact due to Covid, so the fear of unknown / uncertainty has push the market down to Nifty 7500 levels. The movement market understood the impact of Covid, we were back to Nifty 15,000.
👉 If you remember there was almost close to 4-5 lacs Covid cases in a day during second wave of Covid and Nifty was trading around 14-15K. So once again when the market gets a news of Covid spread it will not react much because market knows how to handle this problem.
👉 Actually market was looking for some useless reasons to correct because there was some excesses build around IPOs (especially SME IPOs & OFS at Main Board IPO). These are minor correction of 2-4 weeks max and things will be normal after that.